Commodity

In Malawi, the food system remains stubbornly centered on maize, dominating both production and consumption despite clear policy ambitions for greater crop and diet diversity. While nutritionists and agronomists warn of its limited nutritional value and its vulnerability to climate change, average consumption remains high at 2.8 kg per person per week. This dependence on a single staple leaves the nation’s food security at constant risk of harvest failure.

Average crop yields in much of Africa lag far below their agronomic potential. This is the case for coffee grown by smallholders in Uganda—agronomy experts estimate they could more than double their yields by applying optimal management practices. Increased coffee production is a key strategy of the government of Uganda for boosting both national earnings of foreign exchange and improving the livelihoods of the country’s 1.8 million small-scale coffee farmers, who produce nearly all of the country’s coffee.

Malawi is facing a severe drought crisis linked to the El Niño climate phenomenon. On March 23, President Lazarus Chakwera declared a state of disaster in 23 of Malawi’s 28 districts in anticipation of a poor harvest and appealed for more than $200 million in humanitarian assistance.

Parts of Southern Africa have been experiencing a severe drought since late 2023, fueled in large part by the ongoing El Niño Southern Oscillation. Falling harvests have led to disaster declarations in Malawi, Zambia, and Zimbabwe and affected countries across the region. In particular, maize yields have fallen sharply, threatening food security for millions of households depending on this key staple for a significant share of total calories consumed on a daily basis (Figure 1).

Since the 1950s, Malawi has used a national fertilizer subsidy program as a way to spur use of inorganic fertilizers, boost domestic maize production, and ensure food security and self-sufficiency for smallholder farmers. According to new working paper from the Malawi Strategy Support Program, however, the national subsidy program may not be the most efficient investment for improving the country’s food security and domestic production goals.