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The El Niño weather phenomenon brings with it significant variations in typical weather patterns. For Malawi, that variation often takes the form of severe dry weather, impacting agricultural growing conditions and harvests. A new IFPRI Malawi Strategy Support Program Policy Note looks at the potential implications of the current El Niño conditions on Malawi’s agriculture and food security, as well as ways for policymakers and farmers to strengthen the resilience of their response. Maize yields have declined in Malawi in 8 of the last 12 years in which the El Niño phenomenon occurred.

Key takeawaysThe world has entered a period of permanent emergency defined by continual overlapping crises.Development strategy must be built to address persistent disruption, not temporary shocks.Continuity should be the key priority. Strong institutions, infrastructure, and productive sectors help countries keep progressing during crises.Conventional development strategy assumes that crises are interruptions. Wars end. Commodity prices stabilize. Supply chains recover. Political tensions ease.

Oil prices began climbing in January 2026 amid the escalating U.S. and Israeli confrontation with Iran, then spiked when war broke out on February 28 and Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude rose by roughly 70% within weeks. By June, a fragile ceasefire had brought prices part of the way back down. Whether the calm holds depends on further diplomatic negotiations between the warring parties. Whatever the negotiators do next, this shock continues to stress economies and food systems around the world, though effects vary by region and country.

Nigeria is once again under economic pressure from a shock that originated far from its borders, as it faces high global fuel and fertilizer prices triggered by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. For a country still recovering from the inflationary aftermath of the Russia-Ukraine war, the timing could hardly be worse.

Key takeaways Developing countries are highly exposed to impacts from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, IFPRI economic modeling shows.Poverty and food insecurity rise modestly in percentage terms, but absolute numbers show a significant impact, with about 20 million more people in poverty and 2.5 million more facing undernourishment.Broader economic impacts are limited but uneven. GDP declines are generally small, but agriculture and supply chains face stronger pressures. The economic impacts flowing from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz continue to reverberate, ra