National Policy Dialogue: Preparing for Potential El Niño Impacts on Malawi’s Food Security
The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), in collaboration with the National Planning Commission (NPC), convened a high-level roundtable discussion to assess the potential implications of a forecast El Niño event for Malawi’s 2026/27 agricultural season and food security outlook. The event brought together senior officials from government ministries and departments namely: ministries of Agriculture, Irrigation and Water Development, Information and Communication Technology, Local Government and Rural Development , Natural Resources, Energy and the Department of Disaster Management Affairs, Department of Climate Change and Meteorological Services, Department of Economic Affairs in Ministry of Finance to discuss evidence-based options for reducing the impacts of climate-related shocks on agricultural production and livelihoods.
The discussion was prompted by forecasts from the Department of Climate Change and Meteorological Services indicating an 80 percent likelihood of an El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event during the 2026/27 production season. Participants reviewed analysis conducted by IFPRI examining the potential consequences of the forecast for crop production, food availability, and household welfare in Malawi.
Opening the meeting, NPC emphasized the importance of proactive planning in the face of increasing climate variability. Malawi remains highly vulnerable to weather-related shocks, and the discussion highlighted concerns that another poor production season could exacerbate existing food security challenges. The event provided a platform for stakeholders to jointly consider the actions needed to strengthen preparedness before the onset of the rainy season.
During the technical session, IFPRI presented evidence showing that El Niño events have historically been associated with reduced agricultural production in Malawi. The analysis highlighted that two-thirds of past El Niño episodes negatively affected the country and that maize production in affected years was substantially lower than average. Participants also noted that Malawi is still recovering from the impacts of the 2023/24 El Niño event, underscoring the importance of timely interventions to mitigate future losses.
The presentation outlined a range of anticipatory actions that could help safeguard the 2026/27 harvest. These included promoting early-maturing and drought-tolerant crop varieties, strengthening extension services to provide farmers with timely agronomic advice, improving soil moisture conservation practices, and ensuring the availability of critical agricultural inputs. Participants emphasized that early action could significantly reduce production risks and enhance farmers’ resilience to adverse weather conditions.
Stakeholders also discussed measures that may be needed should food production decline. Proposed response options included expanding winter and irrigated farming, reducing post-harvest losses, strengthening social protection programs, and ensuring access to agricultural inputs for subsequent seasons. Participants recognized that many of these interventions require substantial resources and coordination across multiple institutions.
A key theme of the discussion was the challenge of responding to climate risks in a constrained fiscal environment. Participants noted that limited public resources, foreign exchange shortages, and declining development assistance underscore the need to prioritize interventions that offer the greatest benefits for food security and resilience. The roundtable therefore focused not only on identifying potential actions but also on determining which interventions should receive priority attention and how responsibilities should be shared among government agencies and development partners.
The roundtable concluded with reflections on priority actions and the institutional arrangements required to support implementation. Participants agreed on the importance of continued collaboration and evidence-based planning to strengthen Malawi’s preparedness for climatic shocks and to protect vulnerable households from future food insecurity.