Feeding Africa: How Fertilizer Trade Contributes to Food Security

In this book chapter from the 2025 Africa Agriculture Trade Monitor Report, authors explore a critical yet often overlooked pillar of food security: the trade and accessibility of agricultural inputs. For those tracking the continent's path toward self-sufficiency, the study explores how fertilizers contribute to the future of African farming.

The Fertilizer Paradox

Fertilizers are crucial for delivering essential nutrients to crops, significantly boosting productivity and enhancing food security. By generating higher yields, they make food more available and affordable while lowering production costs. Furthermore, by increasing yields on existing land, they reduce the need for cropland expansion, helping prevent deforestation. Despite these benefits, application rates in Africa are the lowest globally. In 2018, sub-Saharan Africa averaged just 22.3kg/ha, compared to the global average of 139 kg/ha. This contributes to why regional cereal yields are only 40 percent of global averages. To date, production gains have primarily come from expanding cropland rather than productivity improvements.

Mapping the Fertilizer Landscape

Inorganic fertilizer use in Africa doubled between 2000 and 2020, though it fell 14 percent in 2022 following the Russia and Ukraine conflict. Nitrogen remains the most applied nutrient, representing 63 percent of total use, with urea being the most widely used product. The regional disparities are notable. North Africa dominated consumption with 36 percent of the continent's total, while Central Africa represented only 3 percent. At the country level, Egypt achieved a high-intensity rate of 414 kg/ha, followed by Mauritius (144 kg/ha) and South Africa (80 kg/ha). Conversely, 37 countries used less than 25 kg/ha. Production has outpaced consumption, increasing by 165 percent since 2000. Morocco and Egypt contribute 79 percent of total production; Morocco dominates phosphate, while Egypt leads in nitrogen. Nigeria and Libya produce only nitrogen, while Tanzania produces only phosphate.

Trade in Fertilizers

Africa has continued to be a net fertilizer exporter, with a trade surplus increasing to US$5.8 billion in 2023. This growth was anchored by hubs in Morocco and Egypt, alongside Nigeria’s Dangote plant. While intra-African trade rose to 36 percent, the market remains highly concentrated. Ten countries control 97 percent of exports, leaving most nations reliant on these few hubs or volatile imports from Russia. This creates a paradox: despite a continental surplus, many regions face shortages and price shocks. Local farmers remain vulnerable because infrastructure gaps and high logistical costs make it cheaper to export fertilizer abroad than to transport it to landlocked neighbors. For instance, shipping costs to Kigali from Mombasa can add 45 percent to retail prices. Furthermore, the absence of harmonized trade authorities creates conflicting institutional roles that contribute to higher transaction costs. 

Trade policies

Global trade measures are currently dominated by subsidies (65 percent) and export-related measures (21 percent). Major global players like the European Union, China, and Turkey have imposed some of the most harmful measures affecting the sector. Within Africa, Egypt recently adjusted its policies to allow firms to export 55 percent of their production. This strategic move aimed to help manufacturers offset the impact of significant slashes in industrial energy subsidies, ensuring they remain competitive while maintaining domestic supply levels.

The Food Security Equation

The relationship between fertilizer trade and food security is nuanced and influenced by global crises. While fertilizer use correlates with higher yields, heavy reliance on imports exposes countries like Ethiopia, Zimbabwe, and Zambia to volatile prices. Evidence on subsidies remains mixed; they can boost income but also incentivize smuggling and cause market distortions through leakage. Crucially, financial incentives are often overshadowed by structural barriers, such as the lack of oversight authorities and deficient infrastructure. When transport costs and bureaucratic delays inflate prices beyond the reach of smallholders, even the most generous subsidy programs fail to stabilize the food supply. 

The Path Forward

Enhancing food security requires a strategic shift toward regional integration under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). While inorganic fertilizers are vital, their high cost and environmental risks necessitate a balanced approach incorporating livestock manure and organic alternatives. Ultimately, addressing logistical gaps and harmonizing trade authorities will be more critical for doubling intra-African trade by 2034 than traditional subsidy programs. The path forward lies in ensuring the continent’s surplus flows freely to the farmers who need it most.

Rajalakshmi Nirmal is the Global Communications Lead of CGIAR Science Program on Policy Innovations and works at the International Food Policy Research Institute