Since April 2023, the Sudan has suffered from violent conflict that has displaced wide swathes of the population, significantly disrupted the economy, and led to skyrocketing unemployment, poverty, and food insecurity. Between December 2024 and May 2024, more than half of the country’s population experienced IPC Phase 3 food insecurity or higher, and millions of Sudanese have been without reliable access to food, healthcare, housing, and other critical services.
As the violence continues unabated, a recent paper published in The Journal of Development Studies examines the potential impacts on the nation’s economy, the agrifood sector, and household-level livelihoods and incomes going into 2026.
The study relies on data from a social accounting matrix (SAM) reflecting the state of the Sudan’s economy in 2021, with macro-level data updated to reflect the economic realities in 2022. The SAM covers 77 economic activities, 79 commodities, and 10 household groups, categorized by rural and urban status and per capita expenditure quintiles.
The authors then conduct two simulations to investigate the potential impact of the continued conflict through 2025 on different economic sectors, in order to analyze direct and indirect economic shocks and potential strategies for recovery. The moderate simulation assumes a 20.1 percent contraction of GDP in 2023, with an additional 15.1 percent and 7 percent contraction in 2024 and 2025, respectively. The more extreme simulation assumes a GDP contraction of 29.5 percent in 2023, followed by an additional 12.2 percent and 7 percent contraction in 2024 and 2025.
According to existing research, in late 2023, 60 percent of rural households reported significantly reduced incomes as a result of the conflict, with 21 percent of rural households in areas where the fighting has been most intense experiencing a total loss of incomes. For urban households, 31 percent had been displaced as of late 2023 and reported difficulty finding stable housing, healthcare, and employment.
Under the extreme scenario, the Sudan’s total GDP would decline by 41.89 percent by the end of 2025, with business services, retail, and other service-oriented sectors experiencing the most severe disruption. The agricultural sector would see a 35.7 percent decrease due to high prices for agricultural inputs, disruptions to markets, lack of financing for agricultural production, and climate change-driven impacts. The overall agrifood system would experience a 33.6 percent reduction in GDP; this reduction would impact agriculture, agro-processing, and food trade and transport. Food services, on the other hand, would see an increase in GDP (13.2 percent) due to displaced households relying on such services in safe states across the country rather than on their own agricultural production.
Under the moderate scenario, the Sudan’s overall GDP would fall by 37.3 percent, with the services sector again most heavily impacted. The agricultural sector would experience a 28.4 percent reduction under this scenario, while the overall agrifood system would see a 26.7 percent decline, with sub-sectors impacted similarly to what was seen in the extreme scenario.
Across both scenarios, household incomes would decline significantly for all quintiles. Rural populations and vulnerable groups like women would see the most severe loss of incomes. Under the extreme scenario, the national poverty rate would skyrocket by as much as 19 percentage points; this would mean an additional 7.5 million poor people throughout the country. National employment under the extreme scenario would fall by 44.7 percent.
In the moderate scenario, employment would fall by 40 percent, while the national poverty rate would increase by 17.2 percentage points: an additional 6.9 million people in poverty.
In both scenarios, rural populations would see the most significant increase in poverty rates, with rates jumping by 32.5 percent and 29.5 percentage points in the extreme and moderate scenarios, respectively. Urban populations would also experience a serious rise in poverty rates, at 11.6 and 10.7 percentage points, albeit less severe than the increase seen in rural areas.
With the conflict in the Sudan continuing as we enter 2026, urgent humanitarian and policy actions are needed to stave off the worst economic and poverty impacts. The study suggests prioritizing business services, wholesale and retail sectors, and manufacturing activities in order to restore the country’s economic productivity, while rebuilding agricultural production, agro-processing, and food trade through investing in restoring infrastructure and providing direct support to farmers. Social protection measures will also need to be stepped up, particularly for poor and vulnerable populations, to make up for the widespread loss of livelihoods and prevent even more people from falling into poverty.
Sara Gustafson is a freelance writer and communications consultant.