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Zerayehu Sime

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Aug 18th, 2025
Zerayehu Sime is an Associate Professor of Economics at Addis Ababa University, with expertise in development economics, macroeconomics, poverty and inequality, food security, industrial policy, and applied econometrics. His research examines economic development, innovation, labor productivity, governance, and household welfare in Ethiopia and Sub-Saharan Africa. He possesses advanced skills in Multi-Shock Index (MSI) construction using parametric and non-parametric methods, the analysis of household food security outcomes, and General Equilibrium (CGE) modeling with GAMS and System Dynamics modeling, employing quantitative methodologies to inform evidence-based policy and facilitate sustainable economic growth.

As a consultant with the Food Security Portal, Zerayehu Sime conducted research on compound vulnerability and food security in Somalia.
Compound Vulnerability and Food Security in Somalia
Food Security Resilience in Somalia through Multi-Shock Analysis

Somalia: Acute Food Insecurity Projection Update April - June 2026

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May 14th, 2026
Six million people in Somalia—31 percent of the analysed population—are facing high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) between April and June 2026, including 1.9 million in Emergency (IPC Phase 4). This marks an increase of more than half a million people compared to the initial projection for this time period. 
The updated analysis of the  April–June 2026 projection period shows that both food security and nutrition outcomes are worse than initially predicted.  The deterioration is driven by poor Gu rainfall, sharp food price spikes linked to the 2026 Middle East conflict, currency depreciation and conflict-related displacement.
A rapid and sustained scale‑up of multisectoral assistance—particularly in hotspot areas such as Burhakaba—is urgently needed to prevent further deterioration and loss of life. 

Food Security Resilience in Somalia

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Mar 24th, 2026
This research brief presents evidence that shifting attention from single shocks and population averages toward cumulative, multi-shock exposure can substantially improve anticipatory action, targeting, and the effectiveness of scarce humanitarian and development resources.

Compound Vulnerability and Food Security in Somalia

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Mar 18th, 2026
This study uses FAO Data in Emergencies (DIEM) survey data from 5,396 households to examine compound vulnerability and food security in Somalia. These households have experienced a variety of simultaneous shocks, including economic, agricultural, natural, conflict-related, and idiosyncratic occurrences. This study precisely measured these shocks using both parametric and non-parametric Multi-Shock Indices. Cumulative shock exposure was low to moderate on average (13.3–14.6 percent of the maximum achievable), but there was a sizable minority at high levels of exposure: 1,142 households surpassed mean-plus-one standard deviation under the parametric MSI, while 1,350 households exceeded the 75th percentile using the non-parametric MSI. High-risk households were concentrated within vulnerable socio-demographic categories (e.g., female-headed households, less educated household heads, and displaced households) and within certain regions (e.g., Woqooyi Galbeed, Lower Shabelle, and Mudug). Inadequate food security outcomes, such as lower Food Consumption Scores, inadequate dietary diversity, and the use of crisis or emergency coping mechanisms, were closely linked to high MSI values. The parametric MSI also indicated a non-linear amplification for greater levels of cumulative exposure; specific combinations of shocks, such as increasing food prices with animal disease or lost work, had particularly powerful, detrimental impacts. In order to help vulnerable households before shocks occur, these findings emphasize the significance of shock-sensitive and tailored interventions that connect numerous shock indicators to traditional food insecurity measures.

Acute Food Insecurity on the Rise in Somalia

Acute food insecurity continues to rise in Somalia, according to a new IPC alert. From early 2025 to February 2026, the number of people in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) or above food insecurity has nearly doubled, with as many as 6.5 million people now classified as acutely food insecure. Worsening drought, combined with conflict and rising food prices, is largely to blame for the severity of the country’s food and nutrition security crisis.

Acute Food Insecurity, Malnutrition on the Rise in Somalia

As of September 2025, as many as 3.4 million people in Somalia were experiencing acute food insecurity, according to the latest IPC country-level alert. While this represents a reduction from 3.6 million in September 2024, that number could reach as high as 4.4 million by December 2025 unless urgent action is taken.

From Relief to Resilience in Somalia: Harnessing Research to Inform Social Protection Policy and Practice

Policymakers and program implementers in Somalia are increasingly recognizing the importance of complementing short-term support in the form of cash or in-kind transfers with interventions targeting longer-term development goals and poverty exit, a goal that cuts across both more traditional social protection systems and programming targeting internally displaced people. This webinar will bring together representatives from the Somali government, its development partners, and researchers who have contributed to building a robust evidence base around these issues.

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Source:
FAO News Media

Drought, conflict and high food prices risk pushing 4.4 million people into hunger, the Federal Government of Somalia and UN warn

New data from Somalia shows that 4.4 million people could face hunger by April 2025, driven by worsening drought conditions, conflict and high food prices. 

The Federal Government of Somalia and the United Nations agencies warn that without funding for humanitarian action, the country - which in 2022 was pushed to the brink of famine by severe drought, resulting in thousands of deaths, with nearly half being children – millions could once again face deepening hunger.  

Increasing Resilience in the Face of Climate Shocks: Evidence from Somalia

In October 2023, the Baidoa district of Somalia experienced severe flooding, impacting more than 120,000 people, including nearly 100,000 internally displaced people. In a new IFPRI learning brief, researchers explore how this extreme weather event affected households in the area and how the country’s Ultra-Poor Graduation (UPG) intervention can play an enhanced role in protecting vulnerable populations from future shocks.  

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