Impact of climate-induced agricultural productivity shocks on child nutrition in Nigeria

Climatic change, including declining precipitation, droughts, and rising temperatures, threatens agricultural production and productivity and food security of smallholders in sub-Saharan Africa. The rainfed agriculture that smallholders rely on is inherently exposed to climate variability and change. 

Smallholders with low access to climate-smart agricultural technologies and limited alternative livelihood strategies are most vulnerable to climate shocks. Combined with non-climatic factors such as market imperfections and infrastructural deficit, these shocks exacerbate household food insecurity and child malnutrition according to a new article in the Journal of Development Studies titled – “Climate-Induced Agricultural Productivity Shocks Undermine Child Nutritional Outcomes: Evidence from Nigeria”. Understanding the pathways through which productivity declines translate into food and nutrition insecurity is critical for informing effective interventions in low- and middle-income countries.

Climate change and child nutrition linkages

Projections indicate that by 2025, climate change will result in an additional 28 million children suffering from wasting and 40 million more affected by stunting globally. Drawing on the UNICEF conceptual framework, this study distinguishes three layers of determinants – immediate, underlying, and basic – that shape child nutritional outcomes. At the immediate level, climate-induced declines in agricultural productivity reduce household food availability. At the underlying level, shocks affect household food access and caregiving capacity by reducing agricultural income and increasing the volatility of local food prices. Households with poor market access or lower education levels face higher exposure to these risks as they rely more heavily on own-production for consumption.

Data and descriptive results

The study uses two waves of panel datasets from the Living Standards Measurement Study-Integrated Surveys on Agriculture (LSMS-ISA) in Nigeria: wave 2 (2012/13) and wave 3 (2015/16). Nigeria’s large population and high exposure to climate shocks make it a natural setting for identifying the effects of climate variability on early childhood nutrition. Descriptive results show that approximately 31 percent of sample children are stunted and 16 percent are underweight. Children in rural households have a significantly higher rate of child wasting than those in urban households. Real net crop income, a proxy for average agricultural productivity, was found to be USD 2,480 (PPP) per hectare.

Empirical strategies

The empirical approach investigates two main relationships. First, it examines the effects of climate shocks on agricultural productivity by controlling for farmers' characteristics and input uses. Second, it addresses the implications of climate-induced agricultural productivity shocks for child nutrition. The study exploits the panel nature of the dataset and employs a fixed-effects specification to minimize prospective bias. To investigate heterogeneous effects, the sample is separated by access to markets and the education level of the household head. The distance to the nearest market centre and years of schooling are used to classify these sub-groups.

Findings from the Field

The results from the first stage estimates show that climate change strongly predicts agricultural productivity change. High temperatures and low precipitation are associated with reductions in agricultural productivity; specifically, a 1 percent increase in harmful degree days results in a 4 percent decrease in productivity. This may be a direct effect of heat stress or an indirect effect due to the high prevalence of pests and crop diseases. Additionally, fertilizer use, application of herbicides or pesticides, and access to extension all have a significant, positive association with agricultural productivity.

Climate-induced agricultural productivity shocks significantly reduce child nutritional indicators, including height-for-age (HAZ) and weight-for-age (WAZ), while increasing the prevalence of stunting. The primary channel through which these shocks affect child nutrition is reduced food production for own consumption. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that children from households with lower market access and lower educational attainment are disproportionately affected. These households have fewer opportunities to buffer climate-induced income variability, reinforcing the critical link between agricultural production and the nutritional status of children in agrarian settings.

Conclusions and policy implications

The findings demonstrate that climate-induced agricultural productivity shocks significantly reduce child nutritional outcomes in Nigeria. High temperatures and declining precipitation undermine land productivity, which translates into increased stunting and lower HAZ scores among children. Because the main pathway operates through reductions in household food production for own consumption, interventions must be targeted toward enhancing the resilience of smallholders.

While emergency food assistance and social safety net programs remain essential to protect child nutrition during periods of acute shocks, achieving sustainable solutions requires a shift toward long-term public interventions. Policy focus must prioritize building resilience capacity through the development of productive assets, infrastructural development, and institutional support. Furthermore, promoting alternative livelihood strategies and climate-smart agriculture is critical to mitigating the adverse effects of climatic shocks. By easing labor constraints and strengthening market integration, these interventions can help households buffer against production volatility and secure better nutritional health for the future.

Rajalakshmi Nirmal is the Global Communications Lead of CGIAR Science Program on Policy Innovations and works at the International Food Policy Research Institute.