Climate change is transforming the global landscape, creating unprecedented challenges for developing countries. These challenges are particularly acute in regions where economies heavily depend on agriculture, such as sub-Saharan Africa, where climate impacts such as droughts and extreme weather are increasingly disrupting farming economies and food systems. One of the critical questions facing policymakers is how to best navigate these challenges to ensure sustainable development: Does the threat of climate change significantly undermine strategies focusing on agriculture?

In October 2023, the Baidoa district of Somalia experienced severe flooding, impacting more than 120,000 people, including nearly 100,000 internally displaced people. In a new IFPRI learning brief, researchers explore how this extreme weather event affected households in the area and how the country’s Ultra-Poor Graduation (UPG) intervention can play an enhanced role in protecting vulnerable populations from future shocks.  

Since the outbreak of conflict in April 2023, Sudan has seen deteriorating food security and economic activity, disrupted markets and agrifood systems, and a steadily building humanitarian crisis. According to a new policy note from IFPRI’s Sudan Strategy Support Program, if steps are not taken to protect livelihoods and food security, 4 million people could fall into poverty and an additional 2 million could face food insecurity and malnourishment by 2028.

Despite some marginal improvements at the country level, Africa south of the Sahara remains mired in acute food insecurity and escalating food crises, according to the 2024 Global Report on Food Crisis (GRFC). Conflict, extreme weather events, economic shocks, and forced displacement continue to drive up rates of food insecurity and malnutrition throughout the region, with the outlook for 2024 equally grim.

Central and Southern Africa

Ethiopia is in the midst of the worst drought in the past 40 years, with six consecutive failed or below-average rainy seasons in the country’s pastoral areas. At the same time, flooding in other regions has disrupted livelihoods and caused widespread damage to lands and infrastructure. Climate shocks like these have been a major contributing factor to Ethiopia’s recent economic reversals, says a new report from the World Bank Group, and strong government action is needed to prepare for and adapt to an uncertain climate future.

As conflict worsens in Sudan, the country is facing unprecedented levels of acute food insecurity and malnutrition, according to a new alerts from both Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) and FEWS Net.

Since the onset of civil war in April 2023, millions of people in Sudan have suffered from loss of livelihoods, destruction of infrastructure, and disruption of essential services. With the war still underway, Sudan is facing the world's largest displacement crisis—with 6.5 million displaced people internally and another 1.7 million driven into neighboring countries—and a surge in acute food insecurity, soaring poverty levels, and extensive losses in income, employment, and productive assets.

More than half of the adult population in Uganda is employed in the agriculture and fishery industries, with an estimated 36 percent engaging in subsistence agriculture. Despite the importance of agriculture to Uganda’s economy, however, the country continues to suffer from high rates of food insecurity. Small-scale farmers are often particularly hard hit by the cycle of poverty and hunger due to the vulnerability of their livelihoods to price shocks, extreme weather events, and other disruptions.

Conflict continues to drive acute food insecurity and food assistance needs in Sudan, according to a recent FEWS Net alert.

Fighting in the country has expanded into Sudan’s southeast region, a major agricultural production and food storage area. The region typically accounts for more than 50 percent of Sudan’s annual domestic cereal production. Conflict-led disruptions to both agricultural production and trade, including destruction of infrastructure, pose a substantial threat to food availability throughout the country, reports FEWS Net.

Global fertilizer markets experienced significant price surges beginning in 2020 and through 2022 due to a combination of factors, including higher natural gas prices, supply chain disruptions triggered by COVID-19, trade disruptions due to the Russia-Ukraine war, and export restrictions. Although parallel increases in international agricultural commodity prices may have cushioned these price shocks, insufficient availability and affordability of fertilizers are likely to have affected yield and profitability of smallholder production systems.