Escaping the fragility-poverty trap: New evidence on financing food systems in Africa
Extreme poverty and fragility are increasingly converging, and so must the policies and financing designed to address them. This was the central message of an October 17 policy seminar, Tackling Extreme Poverty and Financing for Food Systems in Africa, organized by IFPRI on the margins of the 2025 World Bank-International Monetary Fund (IMF) Annual Meetings in Washington, D.C.
The hybrid event brought together researchers, policymakers, and development partners from the United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU-WIDER), the World Bank, the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD), and IFPRI to explore new evidence on how fragility, poverty, and food insecurity intersect in Africa, and how financing strategies must adapt to sustain progress in the most vulnerable settings.
Two complementary studies anchored the discussion: The forthcoming UNU-WIDER–World Bank Poverty and Fragility Companion Report, and the Africa Report on External Development Financial Flows to Food Systems (3FS), co-produced by IFAD, IFPRI, and AKADEMIYA2063. The reports underscore related challenges: Even as the troubling combination of poverty and fragility is increasingly concentrated in fragile and conflict-affected regions of Africa, external financing, especially for food systems, has fallen sharply.
Opening the discussion, Johan Swinnen, IFPRI Director General, underscored that “volatility, rather than stability, is the new norm.” Globally, about 70% of people in fragile and conflict-affected areas now live in sub-Saharan Africa, and by 2030, half of the world’s extreme poor are projected to reside in fragile states in the region.
Presenting findings from the Poverty and Fragility Companion Report, co-authors Patricia Justino, Director Designate, UNU-WIDER, and María Eugenia Genoni, Senior Economist, World Bank, explained that the report rethinks how to break out of the fragility-poverty trap by combining new subnational data on poverty and fragility with a probabilistic approach to measuring fragility. In this framework, fragility is defined as the likelihood of state ineffectiveness, a dynamic and multidimensional condition that changes across regions and over time. Mapping 1,800 subnational areas worldwide, the study finds that nearly all of the 200 poorest regions are located in fragile areas of sub-Saharan Africa.
“Fragility is not a binary condition; it is a spectrum of risk that shifts with how societies manage shocks,” said Justino. “Recognizing those dynamics helps governments and partners act earlier and target investments where they are most needed.”
Conflict and fragility are once again driving poverty, and traditional development approaches are proving insufficient, Justino added. The world is facing “the same situation we were in 15 years ago, if not worse,” she said.
The 3FS Africa report, presented by John Ulimwengu, IFPRI Senior Research Fellow, complements this analytical lens with financial evidence, tracking a total of $117 billion in external finance for African food systems between 2018 and 2023. Despite some growth in blended finance (using philanthropic funds to mobilize private capital) and private sector instruments, the study documents uneven allocation and a recent decline in aid flows. Ulimwengu noted that while Africa has attracted about 40% of global food-systems financing in recent years, the continent must take greater ownership of its financing strategies—by increasing domestic investments, strengthening public-private partnerships, and advancing the commitments made under the CAADP Kampala Declaration.
Diane Menville, IFAD Associate Vice-President and Chief Financial Officer, noted that in such an environment, “data and coordination are as important as dollars” to ensure resources reach priority sectors.
Speakers from Mozambique and Somalia underlined the difficulty of building fiscal resilience and investing in human capital amid overlapping shocks. Enilde Sarmento, IMF Macroeconomic Adviser, stressed that effective responses require coordinated, locally-owned strategies that combine prudent macroeconomic policy, investment in people, and institutional reform. Somalia’s delegation detailed the impacts that multiple shocks related to COVID-19 shutdowns, conflict, and extreme weather events have had on the country’s economy, and laid out ongoing efforts to link food-system recovery with state-building and long-term planning. They outlined their new strategy to attract financing for Somalia’s food systems, including through public-private partnerships.
While the focus was on Africa, similar dynamics are unfolding elsewhere. Ana María Ibáñez, Vice-President for Sectors and Knowledge at the Inter-American Development Bank, drew parallels with Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), where pockets of fragility persist amid weak institutions and deep inequality, with poverty rates stalled around 30% since 2014. Although the region is less affected by conflict, it is grappling with serious criminal violence. With only 8% of the world’s population but 30% of its homicides, roughly half linked to organized crime, LAC illustrates how different forms of fragility can undermine development progress.
Swinnen underscored the increased need for domestic resource mobilization in low-income countries, suggesting there are opportunities for repurposing existing government outlays to support food systems transformation. He also mentioned IFPRI’s expanded focus on fragility, conflict, and migration, which combines anticipatory action, crisis monitoring, and resilience-building. These efforts, he said, aim to help countries transition “from fragility to stability.”
Participants agreed that declining overseas development assistance will slow progress against poverty in fragile contexts, and emphasized the importance of integrating risk management, long-term investment, and inclusive food system transformation. The shared challenge, they concluded, is to use limited resources more intelligently and to anticipate crises before they harden into traps of poverty and fragility.
One key lever will be rigorous research. Evidence-based, context-specific solutions are essential to this effort. Menville highlighted the need for robust data systems, quoting statistician W. Edwards Deming: “Without data, you’re just another person with an opinion.” Ulimwengu echoed this point, stressing that co-creating research with policymakers is essential to bridge the gap between analysis and action.
Evgeniya Anisimova is a Media and Digital Engagement Manager with IFPRI’s Communications and Public Affairs Unit; Sami Husa is a Communications Associate with UNU-WIDER.
Microsoft Copilot was used in the drafting of this post, which was then reviewed, revised, and edited.