Climate Change

Key takeawaysMalawi faces a high El Niño risk heading into the 2026/27 growing season. Past El Niño events have reduced maize production, increased food insecurity, and strained household livelihoods across the country.Early action is critical to limit those impacts and avert a potential humanitarian crisis.

Key takeawaysMalawi faces significant economic and food security risks from overlapping El Niño impacts and Iran war fuel and fertilizer price shocks, a modeling exercise shows.Possible impacts include weaker growth, declines in agricultural production, and higher food prices, though the outcomes are uncertain.Food security could deteriorate sharply in 2027.

The El Niño weather phenomenon brings with it significant variations in typical weather patterns. For Malawi, that variation often takes the form of severe dry weather, impacting agricultural growing conditions and harvests. A new IFPRI Malawi Strategy Support Program Policy Note looks at the potential implications of the current El Niño conditions on Malawi’s agriculture and food security, as well as ways for policymakers and farmers to strengthen the resilience of their response. Maize yields have declined in Malawi in 8 of the last 12 years in which the El Niño phenomenon occurred.

Key takeawaysA study in Nigeria links climate shocks such as droughts and extreme weather to increased rates of stunting and other poor outcomes for children’s health.Associated declines in farm production affect children’s diets and health during a critical period of development, with impacts strongest for vulnerable households.Policy action to address this connection is urgently needed, including strengthening climate-resilient agriculture and improving market access.Nigeria is facing mounting climate variabilities that threaten food production, livelihoods, and child nutritional status.

Climatic change, including declining precipitation, droughts, and rising temperatures, threatens agricultural production and productivity and food security of smallholders in sub-Saharan Africa. The rainfed agriculture that smallholders rely on is inherently exposed to climate variability and change. Smallholders with low access to climate-smart agricultural technologies and limited alternative livelihood strategies are most vulnerable to climate shocks.