New data from Somalia shows that 4.4 million people could face hunger by April 2025, driven by worsening drought conditions, conflict and high food prices. 

The Federal Government of Somalia and the United Nations agencies warn that without funding for humanitarian action, the country - which in 2022 was pushed to the brink of famine by severe drought, resulting in thousands of deaths, with nearly half being children – millions could once again face deepening hunger.  

Much has been said and written of late about the linkages between conflict and hunger. There is good reason for this: 65% of the world’s acutely food-insecure people live in conflict-affected countries. Typically, two claims are made about the conflict-hunger linkage. First, that conflict breeds hunger. This claim is supported by so much evidence that in 2018 the United Nations adopted Resolution 2417 recognizing the direct impacts of armed conflict on food insecurity and strongly condemning the use of starvation of civilians as a weapon of warfare in conflict situations.

Since the outbreak of conflict in April 2023, Sudan has seen deteriorating food security and economic activity, disrupted markets and agrifood systems, and a steadily building humanitarian crisis. According to a new policy note from IFPRI’s Sudan Strategy Support Program, if steps are not taken to protect livelihoods and food security, 4 million people could fall into poverty and an additional 2 million could face food insecurity and malnourishment by 2028.

Despite some marginal improvements at the country level, Africa south of the Sahara remains mired in acute food insecurity and escalating food crises, according to the 2024 Global Report on Food Crisis (GRFC). Conflict, extreme weather events, economic shocks, and forced displacement continue to drive up rates of food insecurity and malnutrition throughout the region, with the outlook for 2024 equally grim.

Central and Southern Africa

As conflict worsens in Sudan, the country is facing unprecedented levels of acute food insecurity and malnutrition, according to a new alerts from both Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) and FEWS Net.

Conflict continues to drive acute food insecurity and food assistance needs in Sudan, according to a recent FEWS Net alert.

Fighting in the country has expanded into Sudan’s southeast region, a major agricultural production and food storage area. The region typically accounts for more than 50 percent of Sudan’s annual domestic cereal production. Conflict-led disruptions to both agricultural production and trade, including destruction of infrastructure, pose a substantial threat to food availability throughout the country, reports FEWS Net.

Over 25 million people have experienced acute food insecurity and hunger between July and December 2023, according to the World Food Programme and IPC. The country is currently facing one of the world’s largest current food crises.

IPC estimates that around 3.5 million people are in Phase 4 (Emergency) food insecurity, while 21.8 million are in Phase 3 (Crisis). As many as 900,000 children under five are suffering from severe wasting.

Extreme weather events are driving alarming rates of hunger and malnutrition in South Sudan and Somalia, according to a new series of reports from the World Food Programme (WFP). These trends are expected to continue into 2024.

While some countries in Africa South of the Sahara have seen improvements in food security in 2023, the region as a whole continues to be plagued by food crises, according to the Global Report on Food Crises (GRFC) 2023 Midyear Update. East Africa has been the hardest hit, with nearly 65 million people in the region having experienced high levels of acute food insecurity in the first half of 2023, up 8 million from 2022.

Between 2000 and 2019, Rwanda’s economy grew by over 7 percent annually. This rapid and significant expansion was driven in part by transformation in the country’s agrifood sector. A recent project note by IFPRI’s Rwanda Strategy Support Program examines that transformation, particularly how the growth of different agrifood value chains has impacted poverty reduction, hunger and nutrition, economic growth, and employment in the country.