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Over the past 10 months, world prices of most grains and oilseeds have fallen back to levels prior to the war in Ukraine. Likewise, volatility in prices has also declined considerably from recent highs. With the extension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, there is hope that the world is recovering from the price shocks of the past year. Yet, while prices have fallen in international markets, they have frequently remained high at local level, particularly in net food importing developping countries reflecting the weakening of their currencies against the US dollar. As a result, food price inflation is still a serious concern in many countries, also because post-farm gate costs for shipping and processing remain subject to inflationary pressures.

With no end in sight to the war in Ukraine and threats of further escalation, uncertainty continues to hang over agricultural markets. Supplies are tight. Reduced plantings in Ukraine mean that other countries will need to produce additional grains and oilseeds to help rebuild global stocks and moderate price levels. The world has so far been relatively fortunate: a combination of good weather and strong producer supply response has kept market prices from rebounding back to the high levels of early 2022. However, tight stocks will mean increased price volatility, particularly during periods of uncertainty such as planting times and the Northern Hemisphere growing seasons. In addition, uncertainty over events like the renewal of the Black Sea Grain Initiative will continue to roil markets.