Ukraine Crisis Monitoring: Analysis of Food Crisis Risks and Policy Responsiveness

The Food Security Portal gratefully acknowledges the European Commission (EC) and the Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO) of the Government of the United Kingdom for their financial support of the Ukraine crisis monitoring.

Last update: July 03, 2026

The crisis in Ukraine threatens global food security at a time when global food markets are already struggling with soaring prices, supply-chain disruptions, and a bumpy recovery from the pandemic. Ukraine and the Russian Federation account for more than 30% of global wheat exports, provide around 12 percent of the globally traded supply of food energy in kilo calories, and are breadbaskets to many food import-dependent developing countries in the Middle East, South Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa. Moreover, Russia is a major producer of fertilizer. Any serious disruption of production and exports from these suppliers will drive up prices further and erode food security for millions of people. If governments respond with export restrictions in an effort to keep domestic food prices in check, the impact on food security will be even higher.

In this context, monitoring the impact of the crisis on food security is key. To that end, this page provides several tools to monitor the situation. Here you can monitor production and stocks, track food export restrictions, check food price volatility, and access resources such as the AMIS Market Monitor.

 

The AMIS Market Monitor July 2026

Agricultural markets are moving through a generally steady period, supported by favourable conditions across AMIS crops. Seasonal progress has been broadly encouraging, although pockets of dryness and the emergence of El Niño are beginning to shape expectations. Policy developments continue influencing market dynamics, with adjustments to trade measures and domestic support. Fertilizer markets have shown signs of easing, as improved flows through the Strait of Hormuz and softer energy prices have reduced supply pressures. While fertilizer affordability improved in some regions, it remains a constraint in others. Against this backdrop, staple food commodity prices show mixed movements, with harvest pressure in the northern hemisphere and ample supply prospects balancing localized tightness, leaving sentiment cautious but broadly stable.