Food Systems

Oil prices began climbing in January 2026 amid the escalating U.S. and Israeli confrontation with Iran, then spiked when war broke out on February 28 and Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude rose by roughly 70% within weeks. By June, a fragile ceasefire had brought prices part of the way back down. Whether the calm holds depends on further diplomatic negotiations between the warring parties. Whatever the negotiators do next, this shock continues to stress economies and food systems around the world, though effects vary by region and country.

In Malawi, the food system remains stubbornly centered on maize, dominating both production and consumption despite clear policy ambitions for greater crop and diet diversity. While nutritionists and agronomists warn of its limited nutritional value and its vulnerability to climate change, average consumption remains high at 2.8 kg per person per week. This dependence on a single staple leaves the nation’s food security at constant risk of harvest failure.

Military and paramilitary groups exert substantial influence globally, serving as the primary power base for regimes in forty-two different nations.

Key takeawaysCrop insurance can help smallholder farmers in Africa and elsewhere manage climate risk and stabilize livelihoods in the face of droughts and extreme weather.Although insurance has ​evolved to become more affordable, further innovation is needed to ensure high-quality products that cover farmers’ needs.Scaling coverage requires better product design, farmer education, and links to credit and inputs and in some cases smart subsidies. As climate change impacts intensify, African economies face increasing exposure to extreme weather events.

Militaries play a major role in the politics of many countries. They determine whether elections can occur and who can compete. From Egypt to Pakistan and Myanmar to Uganda, the military is often the most important powerholder.In parallel, violent non-state actors—including criminal networks, terrorist groups and paramilitaries—have proliferated over the last two decades.To maintain their influence and finance their operations, militaries and violent non-state actors often become heavily involved in both legal and illicit business activities.