Conflict

Context

In February 2022, war erupted between Russia and Ukraine. These two countries account for about 12 percent of the total calories traded in the world, raising serious concerns about the implications for global food security. Although it is too early to draw a conclusion regarding the world’s capacity to absorb these stressors, past trends, early macroeconomic impacts, and policy responses can provide a glimpse of possible impacts.

An estimated 360,000 people in northern Burkina Faso are suffering extreme and worsening food insecurity and malnutrition, according to a recent alert from FEWS Net. While the risk of famine (IPC Phase 5) in the region is not a foregone conclusion, FEWS Net has determined that such a risk is possible through September 2023.

In Africa south of the Sahara, the share of the population facing food insecurity is more than double that of any other region in the world, according to IFPRI’s 2023 Global Food Policy Report: Rethinking Food Crises Responses. Approximately 282 million people in Africa south of the Sahara, or around 20 percent of the population, were undernourished and food-insecure in 2021.

Over the past two years, the impacts of ongoing regional conflicts, climate change, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the Russian-Ukraine war have drastically weakened the world’s already inadequate, unsustainable food systems. This confluence of factors has induced in supply chain disruptions and high and volatile prices for food, fertilizer, and fuel, and the result has been the third global food crisis in less than two decades.