Food Crisis and Related Risk Factors

Conversations about climate change often focus on future effects, but according to the latest Assessment Report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, changes to the global climate have already had a significant impact on food production. Global agricultural productivity has declined over the past 30 years by 1-5 percent per decade, and this deterioration is expected to continue, even if we only experience low levels of warming (+2 ºC).

This blog was originally posted on the World Bank's Development Impact blog . Written by World Bank Senior Economist David Evans , co-authored by Lead Economist Markus Goldstein and Research Analyst Anna Popova .

Common wisdom holds that rising price volatility in international food markets has translated into higher food price volatility in developing countries, particularly in Africa. This seems to be a logical assumption, as most African countries are net food importers, but is it actually the case? Not necessarily, according to a 2013 research brief by IFPRI researcher Nicholas Minot.

It has been well documented that children's early years, from birth through when they enter preschool, are crucial to their future health, cognitive, and economic well-being. Young children suffer disproportionately more than adults from economic shocks such as drought or food price spikes, as well as from non-economic shocks, like divorce or family separation. Undernourished children have been observed to have poorer cognitive skills in adulthood, are less likely to complete school, and are less productive economically.