Food Crisis and Related Risk Factors

Malawi’s food system has likely deteriorated since 2010-2011, according to a new report from IFPRI’s Malawi Strategy Support Program (MSSP). Severe drought and rising food prices have been the largest contributors to rising food insecurity.

Last week, the heads of the World Bank Group, International Monetary Fund, United Nations World Food Program, and World Trade Organization issued a joint statement calling for urgent global action on food security in response to skyrocketing global food prices.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has imperiled global food security—creating suffering within Ukraine and displacing millions, while disrupting agricultural production and trade from one of the world's major exporting regions. The latter threatens to drive rising food prices still higher and create scarcity, especially for regions most dependent on exports from Russia and Ukraine—particularly the Middle East and North Africa.

Since October 2020, the eastern Horn of Africa has experienced persistent extreme drought, According to a recent report released by FEWS Net. Extremely dry weather in October-December 2020, March-May 2021, and October-December 2021 has resulted in significantly reduced agricultural and livestock production. For example, in Somalia, the 2021 “Deyr” cereal harvest is expected to be as much as 70 percent below the 10-year average. The region has not experienced three consecutive dry seasons since the 1980s, and the trend has put food security at serious risk.

Prevalence of hunger and food insecurity have been on the rise in Africa south of the Sahara (SSA) in recent years after a long period of decline. In 2020, an estimated one in five people in the region faced hunger, more than double the proportion of any other region worldwide. The period 2019-2020 in SSA saw the strongest increase in annual undernourishment ever recorded. In 2020, estimated prevalence of undernourishment ranged from 10.1 percent in southern Africa to 31.8 percent in Central Africa.