Food Prices

Nigeria is once again under economic pressure from a shock that originated far from its borders, as it faces high global fuel and fertilizer prices triggered by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. For a country still recovering from the inflationary aftermath of the Russia-Ukraine war, the timing could hardly be worse.

While declining globally, hunger continued to rise across Africa in 2024. An estimated 307 million people in the region, or more than 20 percent of the region’s population, experienced hunger, according to the 2025 State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World report. This was up from just under 19 percent in 2022 and from 17.4 percent in 2019 before the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. Since 2015 when the 2030 Sustainable Development Goal Agenda was released, hunger has increased in the region by 113 million people.

In recent years, it has become increasingly recognized that true food and nutrition security depend not just on consumption of an adequate caloric quantity of food but also on consumption of the right types of food. A healthy diet—which the WHO and FAO define as one characterized by adequate, balanced, moderate, and diverse consumption of safe foods and beverages—is essential in supporting long-term physical and cognitive health, development, and well-being and in preventing diseases and damaging nutrient imbalances.

Fertilizer is a critical input for agricultural productivity, and its increased use has been closely associated with rising agricultural yields in many countries. In developing economies that rely heavily on fertilizer imports and are home to vulnerable smallholder farmers, fertilizer price spikes can pose serious risks. When farmers lack access to effective risk-sharing mechanisms, sudden or excessive increases in fertilizer prices can discourage adoption, disrupt planting decisions, and reduce productivity.

How households respond to systemic shocks—food price volatility, seasonal fluctuations in agricultural production, conflict, pandemics, and extreme weather events—can play an important role in long-term food security, economic stability, and resilience at both the household and the societal level. A new project paper from the CGIAR Initiative on Fragility, Conflict, and Migration finds that in Mali, the coping mechanisms households resort to in the face of such shocks are often high-risk and reactionary.