Early Warning Systems Hub Alerts

The IPC analysis in Sudan was a complex exercise, given the sheer size of the country and the analytical challenges posed by the ongoing conflict. While IPC findings for February–May 2026 (post-harvest season) cover the entire country (195 localities and IDP settlements), findings for June–September 2026 (lean season) and October 2026-January 2027 (harvest season) cover a significantly smaller area—56 localities and IDP settlements, representing around 8.3 million people and a large share of the most food‑insecure populations.
Data was not available for a full nationwide projection analysis. Caution is therefore advised when comparing figures across periods, as geographic coverage differs significantly.
Nearly 19.5 million people—approximately 41 percent of the country’s population—continue to face high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) between February and May 2026. This includes nearly 135,000 people in IPC Phase 5 (Catastrophe), more than 5 million people in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency), and a further 14 million people in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis). Conditions are expected to deteriorate further in the upcoming June–September lean season.

Six million people in Somalia—31 percent of the analysed population—are facing high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) between April and June 2026, including 1.9 million in Emergency (IPC Phase 4). This marks an increase of more than half a million people compared to the initial projection for this time period. 
The updated analysis of the  April–June 2026 projection period shows that both food security and nutrition outcomes are worse than initially predicted.  The deterioration is driven by poor Gu rainfall, sharp food price spikes linked to the 2026 Middle East conflict, currency depreciation and conflict-related displacement.
A rapid and sustained scale‑up of multisectoral assistance—particularly in hotspot areas such as Burhakaba—is urgently needed to prevent further deterioration and loss of life. 

The IPC conducted a projection update analysis for the period of January to June 2026, focused on the provinces of North Kivu, South Kivu, Ituri and Tanganyika. More than 9.9 million people in these four areas will continue to experience high levels of acute food insecurity in this period. Although this represents a slight improvement of 1.8 percent compared with the September 2025 projection for the same period, the situation still reflects a deterioration from the current analysis, underscoring the persistent severity of food insecurity in the region.
At the national level, approximately 26.5 million people (23 percent of the analysed population) are experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity between January and June 2026, including more than 3.6 million people in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) and 22.9 million people in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis).
Key drivers of the high levels of acute food insecurity include relentless armed conflict, and economic and climatic shocks. The food security situation is further undermined by limited access to essential services and weakened infrastructure, gaps in social protection systems and insufficient coverage of humanitarian assistance.