External Shocks

A recent Food Security Outlook Report released by FEWS Net forecasts that for November 2016 – May 2017, food security conditions throughout southern Africa will worsen for many poor households. Deteriorating food security will be driven partly by normal seasonal trends, as this period is the peak of the lean season in the region, and partly by the 2015-2016 El Niño cycle, which delayed or reduced harvests in many countries.

According to a new FAO Situation Report , Ethiopia could be facing a new drought in the southeastern regions of the country. Following on the tail of the 2015-2016 El Niño-driven drought, which was the worst drought the country has seen in decades, this new period of dryness could significantly impact the food security and livelihoods of livestock-producing households in the region.

The 2015-2016 El Niño cycle has had devastating effects in many developing regions, including across much of Africa south of the Sahara. According to a new report from the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, El Niño has affected 60 million people worldwide, and 23 countries have issued response plans costing upwards of US$ 5 billion in national funding and international aid.

Zimbabwe has been in the throes of an El Niño-induced drought for more than a year, placing as many as 4.5 million people in food insecurity throughout the country, according to a recent Reuters article . The prolonged poor weather conditions mean that the upcoming dry season – September and October – is likely to be worse than normal, placing even more pressure on already strained local water supplies.

Discussions about the effects of climate change and climate change adaptation often center on changes in crop yields and subsequent changes in food security and incomes . In addition to these immediate impacts, however, climate change can have important secondary effects on a range of other development indicators.