External Shocks

South and East Africa continue to grapple with an invasion of fall armyworm (FAW) invasion. This pest, never seen on the continent until 2016, is native to the US, and it remains unclear how it was first introduced to Africa. Prolonged dry spells and heavy rains are being blamed for the prevalence of the pest, as these conditions seem to provide a thriving breeding ground.

New reports from FEWS Net and the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) are highlighting the ongoing threat of famine in South Sudan. According to the IPC report, released on February 20, almost 5 million people are estimated to be in need of humanitarian food assistance; this accounts for 42 percent of South Sudan’s population. An estimated 100,000 people are facing localized famine conditions (IPC Phase 5-level food insecurity).

An emergency meeting this week in Harare, Zimbabwe will focus on the spread of the fall armyworm caterpillar throughout much of southern Africa. Experts from 13 countries will join FAO, the Centre for Agriculture and Bioscience International (CABI), the Southern African Development Committee (SADC), and the International Red Locust Control Organization for Central and Southern Africa (IRLCO-CSA) to discuss how the pest can be stopped in an environmentally sustainable way.

The Horn of Africa received only one-quarter of the expected rainfall from October through December, leading to widespread drought and potential famine conditions. An emergency alert from FEWS Net issued on January 25 states that emergency food assistance needs in the region are “unprecedented”, particularly in Nigeria, Somalia, South Sudan, and Yemen, where the threat of famine is particularly strong.  Northeastern and coastal Kenya, southeastern Ethiopia, and parts of Uganda's Karamoja region are also facing acute food shortages and malnutrition.

A new Southern Africa regional alert from FEWS Net has forecast crop damage due to recent heavy rains and an outbreak of fall Armyworm.

December saw consistent severe rains in several parts of the region.  This heavy rainfall has leached nutrients from the soil and prevented households from working on their farms. FEWS Net reports that both of these factors may adversely affect crop yields.