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Southern Africa could face an early start to the 2019-2020 lean season and abnormally high food assistance needs, according to a new alert from FEWS Net . Due to a significant delay in the start of the rainy season and predicted below-average precipitation through March, the region is likely to experience cumulative seasonal rainfall significantly below average. This deficit may negatively impact maize production, livestock conditions, and agricultural labor opportunities in the region.

By Thomas Jayne and Milu Muyanga

Driven by population growth and growing land scarcity, most African farm households are witnessing the gradual sub-division of their land. Over time farms are getting smaller and smaller. Today, over 80% of farms in relatively densely populated countries – like Kenya, Ethiopia, Malawi and Rwanda are smaller than one hectare. Because they’re so small, few can generate enough income to keep farmers above the poverty line and most of them increasingly rely on off-farm incomes.

Populations around the world continue to struggle with malnutrition – both undernourishment and overweight/obesity – and climate change may exacerbate the problem. In addition to reducing overall agricultural yields, higher temperatures and erratic precipitation could increase spoilage of nutritious and perishable foods like fruits and vegetables. Climate change could even make foods themselves less nutritious; increased CO2 levels can reduce the protein content of certain crops, such as soybeans and grains.

This post originally appeared on the IFPRI.org blog and the GSSP blog. 

It is no secret that fertilizer subsidies are back in vogue across Africa south of the Sahara as the preferred tool for governments trying to boost incomes of poor smallholder farmers by increasing farm production and agricultural productivity. The financial burden of fertilizer subsidies is also widely recognized, exacerbated by the expense of improving the accuracy of targeting, as discussed in Jayne et al, 2018.

One in a series of guest blog posts from leading voices in global development on achieving long-term sustainability and growth while ending hunger, poverty, and malnutrition. This originally appeared on IFPRI.org.