What's New

Key takeawaysMalawi faces a high El Niño risk heading into the 2026/27 growing season. Past El Niño events have reduced maize production, increased food insecurity, and strained household livelihoods across the country.Early action is critical to limit those impacts and avert a potential humanitarian crisis.

Key takeawaysMalawi faces significant economic and food security risks from overlapping El Niño impacts and Iran war fuel and fertilizer price shocks, a modeling exercise shows.Possible impacts include weaker growth, declines in agricultural production, and higher food prices, though the outcomes are uncertain.Food security could deteriorate sharply in 2027.

Smallholder farmers and small- and medium-sized agricultural enterprises (SMEs) account for around 80% of Africa’s food production, yet they face an estimated $75 billion annual gap in financing the seeds, fertilizer, tools, and services needed to make them consistently productive and resilient.

The El Niño weather phenomenon brings with it significant variations in typical weather patterns. For Malawi, that variation often takes the form of severe dry weather, impacting agricultural growing conditions and harvests. A new IFPRI Malawi Strategy Support Program Policy Note looks at the potential implications of the current El Niño conditions on Malawi’s agriculture and food security, as well as ways for policymakers and farmers to strengthen the resilience of their response. Maize yields have declined in Malawi in 8 of the last 12 years in which the El Niño phenomenon occurred.

Key takeawaysWomen and girls in many countries are bearing the brunt of rising fuel and fertilizer prices triggered by the Iran war.Higher costs strain agrifood systems and exacerbate existing gender inequalities, further limiting women’s access to inputs, income, and food security.Gender-blind policy responses widen gender gaps.