Resilience

Sudan has now entered its third year of armed conflict, resulting in economic collapse and a deepening humanitarian crisis. As of April 2025, over 8.6 million people have been internally displaced, and over 3 million have fled to neighboring countries. Famine has been confirmed in 10 areas and internally displaced person (IDP) camps, with 17 others at risk. GDP contracted by 20% in 2023 and 15% in 2024 alongside soaring inflation and widespread food insecurity. The conflict is now among the world’s worst humanitarian crises.

Fertilizer is a critical input for agricultural productivity, and its increased use has been closely associated with rising agricultural yields in many countries. In developing economies that rely heavily on fertilizer imports and are home to vulnerable smallholder farmers, fertilizer price spikes can pose serious risks. When farmers lack access to effective risk-sharing mechanisms, sudden or excessive increases in fertilizer prices can discourage adoption, disrupt planting decisions, and reduce productivity.

Food systems around the world face growing challenges. They must be transformed to sustainably feed a growing global population and made more resilient to shocks from extreme weather to conflict. Efforts on those fronts are increasingly interlinked—and depend on well-targeted local interventions.

How households respond to systemic shocks—food price volatility, seasonal fluctuations in agricultural production, conflict, pandemics, and extreme weather events—can play an important role in long-term food security, economic stability, and resilience at both the household and the societal level. A new project paper from the CGIAR Initiative on Fragility, Conflict, and Migration finds that in Mali, the coping mechanisms households resort to in the face of such shocks are often high-risk and reactionary.

Smallholder farmers across the globe produce over a third of the world’s food supply, yet they receive a disproportionately small share of global climate finance. A 2020 report released by the UN’s International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) and Climate Policy Initiative (CPI) shows that less than 2% of international climate finance, amounting to approximately $2 billion, was allocated to smallholder farmers in 2017/2018.