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While agricultural prices have declined over the past 12 months, food price inflation remains high. FAO's food price index, a measure of the monthly change in international prices of a basket of food commodities, is down 20 percent from year-ago levels. Yet, double-digit food inflation rates are reported in many countries around the world. Food inflation remains elevated in part because of the strong US dollar, which has kept commodity prices high in local currencies, and because post-farm gate costs such as energy, transportation, and food manufacturing costs, which account for a large share of the retail price, remain high due to core inflationary pressures. The poor suffer the most from high food prices as they spend high shares of their incomes on food and have weak capacity to cope with price shocks.

While international wheat, maize and vegetable oil prices registered record highs and much volatility last year, rice markets kept relatively calm in view of large global supplies. Over the past seven months, however, rice prices have been generally on a rise and in some suppliers increased by more than 25 percent. The rapid emergence of El Niño, a climate pattern that describes the unusual warming of surface waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean, combined with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole raises concerns about possible impacts on rice production in South and Southeast Asia. Much will depend on the timing and strength of El Niño, especially as to whether or not normal monsoon patterns will be affected. Over the next couple of months, these climatic developments will be closely monitored by AMIS.

The report analyzes the evolution of weekly maize and rice prices in four East African countries - Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania, and Rwanda - in March 2023.

The report presents price trends and movements for key food commodities, including dry beans, dry maize, rice, wheat, and Irish potatoes, for March 2023, in selected major regions and markets in Kenya.