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Jul 6th, 2023

Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) Market Monitor July 2023

The fate of the Black Sea Grain Initiative is again in jeopardy. The collapse of the Nova Kakhovka dam last month has flooded cropland along the Dnipro River and disrupted irrigation. Meanwhile, the ammonia pipeline from the Russian Federation to the Ukrainian port of Pivdennyi has also been damaged. The pipeline has not been in operation since the start of the war; however, its reopening has been a key demand of the Russian Federation to renew the grain deal. While these events are not likely to have major impacts on grain supplies in the short term, they further increase tensions that could result in a termination of the agreement later this month. This would reduce Black Sea exports and further reduce Ukraine production incentives.
Jun 1st, 2023

Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) Market Monitor June 2023

While agricultural prices have declined over the past 12 months, food price inflation remains high. FAO's food price index, a measure of the monthly change in international prices of a basket of food commodities, is down 20 percent from year-ago levels. Yet, double-digit food inflation rates are reported in many countries around the world. Food inflation remains elevated in part because of the strong US dollar, which has kept commodity prices high in local currencies, and because post-farm gate costs such as energy, transportation, and food manufacturing costs, which account for a large share of the retail price, remain high due to core inflationary pressures. The poor suffer the most from high food prices as they spend high shares of their incomes on food and have weak capacity to cope with price shocks.
May 4th, 2023

Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) Market Monitor May 2023

While international wheat, maize and vegetable oil prices registered record highs and much volatility last year, rice markets kept relatively calm in view of large global supplies. Over the past seven months, however, rice prices have been generally on a rise and in some suppliers increased by more than 25 percent. The rapid emergence of El Niño, a climate pattern that describes the unusual warming of surface waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean, combined with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole raises concerns about possible impacts on rice production in South and Southeast Asia. Much will depend on the timing and strength of El Niño, especially as to whether or not normal monsoon patterns will be affected. Over the next couple of months, these climatic developments will be closely monitored by AMIS.
May 1st, 2023

IPC Alert - Bangladesh, May 2023

BANGLADESH: nearly 9 million people experience high levels of acute food insecurity between March and April 2023 driven by repeated climatic shocks and high food prices