Risk and Resilience

Fertilizer is a critical input for agricultural productivity, and its increased use has been closely associated with rising agricultural yields in many countries. In developing economies that rely heavily on fertilizer imports and are home to vulnerable smallholder farmers, fertilizer price spikes can pose serious risks. When farmers lack access to effective risk-sharing mechanisms, sudden or excessive increases in fertilizer prices can discourage adoption, disrupt planting decisions, and reduce productivity.

Conflict, extreme weather events, and economic shocks led to worsening food security outcomes throughout much of Africa south of the Sahara in 2024, according to the recently released 2025 Global Report on Food Crises. While a number of countries saw improvements in their levels of acute food insecurity, all regions saw an overall increase in the number of acute food-insecure people.

The world faced a stark inflection point in 2024, as the continued rise in the number of people facing crisis-to-catastrophic levels of acute food insecurity meets sharp reductions in funding for humanitarian assistance. The 2025 Global Report on Food Crises (GRFC), released today, reports that 295.3 million people across 53 countries/territories faced acute food insecurity in 2024. This represents a tripling of the number of people facing acute hunger since 2016 and a doubling since 2020 (Figure 1).

Figure 1

Food systems around the world face growing challenges. They must be transformed to sustainably feed a growing global population and made more resilient to shocks from extreme weather to conflict. Efforts on those fronts are increasingly interlinked—and depend on well-targeted local interventions.

How households respond to systemic shocks—food price volatility, seasonal fluctuations in agricultural production, conflict, pandemics, and extreme weather events—can play an important role in long-term food security, economic stability, and resilience at both the household and the societal level. A new project paper from the CGIAR Initiative on Fragility, Conflict, and Migration finds that in Mali, the coping mechanisms households resort to in the face of such shocks are often high-risk and reactionary.