Climate Change

Parts of Southern Africa have been experiencing a severe drought since late 2023, fueled in large part by the ongoing El Niño Southern Oscillation. Falling harvests have led to disaster declarations in Malawi, Zambia, and Zimbabwe and affected countries across the region. In particular, maize yields have fallen sharply, threatening food security for millions of households depending on this key staple for a significant share of total calories consumed on a daily basis (Figure 1).

Ethiopia is in the midst of the worst drought in the past 40 years, with six consecutive failed or below-average rainy seasons in the country’s pastoral areas. At the same time, flooding in other regions has disrupted livelihoods and caused widespread damage to lands and infrastructure. Climate shocks like these have been a major contributing factor to Ethiopia’s recent economic reversals, says a new report from the World Bank Group, and strong government action is needed to prepare for and adapt to an uncertain climate future.

A growing body of evidence now suggests that global warming increases the risk of extreme weather events such as droughts, floods, and tropical cyclones (Seneviratne et al. 2021), and these shocks often force poor households to consume less or sell valuable assets, worsening their food security and increasing their vulnerability to chronic poverty. These effects can be particularly salient for women, who often have less resources than male family members even within poor households (Fruttero et al. 2023, van Daalen et al.

Extreme weather events and the long-term impacts of climate change pose a major risk for Africa south of the Sahara, threatening agricultural production and economic growth and hindering efforts to reduce poverty and food insecurity. Climate-smart agricultural practices (CSAPs) can help farmers better adapt to and mitigate these risks; however, the adoption of such practices in the region remains low.

As 2025 – the deadline for the Malabo Declaration commitments – approaches, African policymakers are taking stock of the region’s progress toward the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) framework for agriculture-led growth and development and determining what CAADP implementation will look like post-Malabo. The 2023 ReSAKSS Annual Trends and Outlook Report (ATOR) examines these questions, with a particular emphasis on the future of Africa’s food systems.