Resources

While international wheat, maize and vegetable oil prices registered record highs and much volatility last year, rice markets kept relatively calm in view of large global supplies. Over the past seven months, however, rice prices have been generally on a rise and in some suppliers increased by more than 25 percent. The rapid emergence of El Niño, a climate pattern that describes the unusual warming of surface waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean, combined with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole raises concerns about possible impacts on rice production in South and Southeast Asia. Much will depend on the timing and strength of El Niño, especially as to whether or not normal monsoon patterns will be affected. Over the next couple of months, these climatic developments will be closely monitored by AMIS.

The report analyzes the evolution of weekly maize and rice prices in four East African countries - Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania, and Rwanda - in March 2023.

The report presents price trends and movements for key food commodities, including dry beans, dry maize, rice, wheat, and Irish potatoes, for March 2023, in selected major regions and markets in Kenya.

Over the past 10 months, world prices of most grains and oilseeds have fallen back to levels prior to the war in Ukraine. Likewise, volatility in prices has also declined considerably from recent highs. With the extension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, there is hope that the world is recovering from the price shocks of the past year. Yet, while prices have fallen in international markets, they have frequently remained high at local level, particularly in net food importing developping countries reflecting the weakening of their currencies against the US dollar. As a result, food price inflation is still a serious concern in many countries, also because post-farm gate costs for shipping and processing remain subject to inflationary pressures.