Parts of the Eastern Horn of Africa experienced above-average precipitation between March and May, followed by more heavy rainfall in the northern areas of the region during the start of the June-September wet season. This increased rainfall has led to severe flooding in several areas of the region, and FEWS Net forecasts flooding and heavy rains to continue into December. Sudan remains the hardest hit, with parts of northern Ethiopia and western South Sudan also impacted.
The March-May rainy season was the wettest on record in many areas of the region. While rainfall improved crop and livestock conditions for some, it caused crop loss and population displacement in many other areas. FEWS Net has forecast that as many as 1 million people will be negatively impacted by the flooding, with many facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3)-level food insecurity in the coming months.
At the same time, FEWS NET reports that large areas of western Ethiopia, southeastern South Sudan, and northern Uganda have experienced significant rainfall deficits since mid-July. Parts of Somalia’s south coast, western Rwanda and Burundi, and southwestern Kenya also face drier-than-normal conditions for this time of year, with a subsequent deterioration in vegetation that could impact livestock and crop production and food security.
However, overall, despite the areas of above- and below-average rainfall, pasture and water conditions in the Eastern Horn remain generally favorable. The short-term rain forecast predicts moderate to localized heavy rains for Sudan, Ethiopia, South Sudan, northern Uganda, and southwestern Kenya.